Bitcoin Calms at $24K as Ethereum Classic (ETC) Soars 10% Daily: Market Watch

The past 24 hours saw the cryptocurrency market calm down a bit, with no major changes happening across the top 10 coins by means of total capitalization. However, some cryptocurrencies performed better than others, so let’s dive in.

Bitcoin Calms at $24,000

After a serious run-up from $22,800 to almost $25,000 in the previous two days, Bitcoin’s price has finally calmed down and trades at around the $24K mark.

It appears that the volatility surrounding the announcement of July’s CPI numbers has passed, and now the market is in search of the next direction.

Source: Binance via TradingView

That said, BTC failed to overcome the $25K level before retracing to where it currently trades, but overall – in the past 24 hours – it’s down some 2%.

Altcoins Flat, Red Prevails

Despite the relative calmness, it appears that the market is taking a breather from the recent rallies and is trading predominantly in the red.

Source: Quantify Crypto

As seen in the heatmap above, most of the cryptocurrencies are down slightly in the past day. The most obvious outlier is Ethereum Classic (ETC). It managed to increase by a whopping 10% in an otherwise boring market. It’s worth noting that this increase came on the back of more news associated with the Ethereum 2.0 merge, meaning that investors might be hedging against the possibility of a failure.

Other major gainers include Huobi Token (up 20%) and ANKR (up 40%). The latest soared after Binance Labs revealed a strategic investment in Ankr Protocol without disclosing the actual amount.

Meanwhile, the market sentiment continues to improve. According to the Cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index, which currently sits at 42 basis points, the prevailing sentiment is still “fear.” However, this time last month, the index was at 15 basis points, meaning that the past 30 days saw meaningful improvement.

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ETH Eyes $2K on Further Merge Developments (Ethereum Price Analysis)

The crypto market has seen a flurry of activity over the past few days, and Ethereum was no exception; most of the conversation centered around inflation and the Merge event. At long last, it seems that calmness has prevailed on the market, and everyone is waiting for ETH to reach the crucially important level of $2000.

Technical Analysis

By Grizzly

The Daily Chart

Ethereum has recorded an astonishing 16% gain in the past two days as it touched a high of $1930 at the time of this writing. The second largest cryptocurrency has ascended above the $1,700-$1,800 range (in blue). Reclaiming this resistance has increased the bullish sentiment in the market. It appears that the success of the Goerli merge has been a positive catalyst over the past 24 hours.

If the bulls can flip the resistance at $2000, then the way is paved to reach the resistance zone in the range of $2200-2300(in red), which overlaps with the 200-day moving average line (in white). It should be noted that the price may experience a brief pullback to retest $1,800 before reaching higher levels.

However, if the bears push the price below $1,700 by creating a bull trap, the above bullish scenario is invalidated. In this case, a downward trend will be triggered.

Currently, the advantage is in favor of the bulls, and the positive mark remains strong until a lower high and low is formed.

Key Support Levels: $1500 & $1350
Key Resistance Levels: $1800 & $2160

Daily Moving Averages:
MA20: $1668
MA50: $1406
MA100: $1618
MA200: $2263

Source: TradingView

The ETH/BTC Chart

Against Bitcoin, ETH has hit the resistance zone in the range of 0.077-0.078 BTC (in red). There is still no sign of a trend reversal in the chart. A bullish structure has been formed that has easily broken all resistances. Therefore, if the bulls take a break here, the pair will find support at 0.0726 BTC (in green). A break and a close below this level confirm the trend reversal.

On the other hand, if the red resistance is broken, the price will expand to the critical resistance at 0.0884 BTC (in yellow), which was the highest level that the ETH price against BTC saw in the 2021 bull run.

Key Support Levels: 0.072 & 0.065 BTC
Key Resistance Levels: 0.078 & 0.088 BTC

Source: TradingView

On-chain Analysis

Exchange Inflow/Outflow (Mean, MA7)

Definition: The seven days moving average of mean coins inflow/outflow to and from the exchange.

A high value indicates that investors who deposited or withdrew large amounts are increasing recently.

After Ethereum bottomed out at $880, the deposit of coins to the exchange decreased sharply. This could be due to positive news surrounding the Merge event. Meanwhile, the withdrawal of coins from the exchange did not reduce significantly. This indicates that buyers have dominated the exchanges. As long as this situation continues, the price is expected to touch higher levels.

Source: CryptoQuant
Source: CryptoQuant

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Ethereum Merge Attracts Institutional Investors: Report

The timing of the Merge has been the bone of contention for the Ethereum ecosystem. Developers expect it around September 19, even as the timeline is not concrete. But, with the details before the final testing phase of the event revealed, derivative trades have flipped bullish.

CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill, for one, believes there has been a change in investor sentiment. In the latest edition of Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report, the exec credited the “turn-around” in investor sentiment to “greater clarity” on the timing of the Merge.

Greater Clarity

The report highlighted that institutional investors are stacking up their bets on investment products based on Ethereum. In fact, they witnessed inflows totaling $16 million leading to a seven consecutive week run of inflows totaling $159 million.

Institutions are pouring in the capital as sentiment around the world’s second-largest crypto asset sees a positive reversal which could spur further buying behavior.

The report stated,

“Ethereum saw inflows totaling US$16m and is enjoying a near 7 consecutive week run of inflows totaling US$159m. We believe this turn-around in investor sentiment is due to greater clarity on the timing of The Merge where Ethereum shifts from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake.”

Ethereum Merge is Coming

The Merge aims to eliminate the energy-intensive mining process while simultaneously securing the Ethereum network with the help of staked ETH. After months of delays, the Ethereum mainnet will merge with the Ethereum 2.0 Beacon Chain to finally complete the transition from Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism to a Proof-of-Stake (PoS).

The Ethereum 2.0 will have enhanced network efficiency, and security, in addition to drastically reducing carbon footprint by reducing energy consumption by over 99%, something that its predecessor was heavily criticized for.

Ethereum proponents have some reason to celebrate, but the ride has not been an easy one. From changing roadmaps, confusing terminology, and the latest being opposition to the transition itself, the community has seen it all. Its founder, Vitalik Buterin has been vehemently calling out any potential hard fork paving the way for another blockchain with a PoW mechanism.

But many influential figures in the space appear to support a hard fork. Tron founder, Justin Sun earlier revealed that his exchange Poloniex would list both ETHw and ETHs tokens. BitMEX also joined the list of growing supporters after it announced launching margin trading options in case of an ETHPoW fork.

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ETH Corrects 6% Overnight After Failing to Overcome $1.8K (Ethereum Price Analysis)

Ethereum has spent the last four weeks on a bullish footing as the buyers managed to shoot the price up from around $1,000. The bears were waiting around the overhead resistance at $1,800. They have prevented further price increases twice thus far, so is it time for the bulls to rest?

Technical Analysis

By: Grizzly

The Daily Chart

Yesterday, the bulls managed to briefly push the price above $1,800, but that’s where bears interfered. As a result, the cryptocurrency has fallen 6% as of this writing. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has shown negative divergence for some time, which is not good. Resuming the uptrend requires a break and close above the resistance zone at $1700-$1800 (in red).

On the other hand, if the bulls cannot clear this hurdle the bearish momentum may prompt the cryptocurrency to reach $1,500. A break below this level suggests that the bullish momentum has weakened. In this scenario, retesting the support zone in the range of $1,280-1,350 (in green) will look more likely.

Key Support Levels: $1500 & $1350
Key Resistance Levels: $1800 & $2160

Daily Moving Averages:
MA20: $1635
MA50: $1374
MA100: $1636
MA200: $2269

Source: TradingView

The ETH/BTC Chart

The bullish momentum against BTC seems to be waning. The divergence in the MACD indicator is clear. Bulls probably need to rest after breaking several firm resistances and reaching the descending line resistance (in yellow). The positive structure would remain strong as long as the bulls hold prices above 0.065 BTC (in green). If the horizontal support at 0.07 BTC (in white) cracks, the downtrend will likely be triggered. A close below 0.065 BTC signals the formation of a bearish structure.

Key Support Levels: 0.07 & 0.065 BTC
Key Resistance Levels: 0.075 & 0.08 BTC

Source: TradingView

On-chain Analysis

Taker Buy Sell Ratio
The ratio of buy volume divided by sell volume of takers in perpetual swap trades.

Values over 1 indicate bullish sentiment is dominant.
Values under 1 indicate bearish sentiment is dominant.

According to CryptoQuant data, takers fill more sell orders in the derivatives market. This makes the bearish sentiment prevail for the time being. This metric ideally must stay below 1 (light blue line), so it’s important to remain very cautious.

Source: CryptoQuant

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ETH Facing Huge Resistance, Is Major Correction Inbound Before $2K? (Ethereum Price Analysis)

After several attempts, the bulls finally pushed the price above the 100-day moving average line. However, Ethereum is still struggling to break above the major resistance area between the $1,700 – $1,800 range.

Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis By Grizzly

The Daily Chart

Support and resistance levels have appeared on the chart in the daily timeframe using the Fibonacci retracement tool, extending from the all-time high to the last realized bottom at $880 recorded in June.

As can be seen, the bulls quickly broke above the first resistance, which was at the 0.236 Fib level (in blue) around $1300. Yet, it seems that the 0.382 Fib level (in yellow) has become a direct obstacle for the bulls. Historically, this level has played an important role: In the rally of 2021, the ETH price got stuck below it for three weeks.

Looking over the next short-term, there are two possible scenarios:

First and foremost, ETH breaks and closes above the $1800 mark and targets the next significant levels around $1,900-$2,000. There, it will turn into a bull-trap – long liquidations and back down for a retest of the critical level at $1,300.

In the second scenario, ETH breaks $1800 and cracks above the horizontal resistance at $2160 (in white), and moves towards the red-marked descending line, which overlaps with the 0.618 Fib level (in green). There, it’s expected that ETH will get a rejection on its first attempt. In this scenario, since the 200-day moving average is reclaimed, we can definitely state that the bulls had regained market control.

Key Support Levels: $1500 & $1350

Key Resistance Levels: $1800 & $2160

Daily Moving Averages:

MA20: $1614
MA50: $1349
MA100: $1656
MA200: $2280

The ETH/BTC Chart

Against Bitcoin, as expected, the bulls were able to pull the price towards the descending line resistance (in yellow).

Since the bearish divergence (in red) has been witnessed by the RSI indicator, it is expected that the bulls will rest around this area.

From below, it should be noted that the bulls must defend the horizontal level at 0.07 BTC, while there’s potential that the bears can dominate the market by forming a lower low. If the 0.07 BTC level breaks down, ETH is expected to extend towards the next support at 0.065 BTC (in green).

Key Support Levels: 0.07 & 0.065 BTC

Key Resistance Levels: 0.075 & 0.08 BTC

On-chain Analysis

Exchange Netflow: Definition: The difference between coins flowing in and out of the exchange. Inflow – Outflow = Netflow.

A positive value indicates that the reserve is increasing.

The price has reached a solid resistance from a technical point of view, so investors are currently looking at Ethereum with more skepticism and caution. Furthermore, this has resulted in the metric not changing much. If this resistance gets broken, Ethereum will be withdrawn from the exchange, and the histogram bars will turn red.


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ETH With Another Attempt to Reclaim $1.7K, Will it Succeed? (Ethereum Price Analysis)

It appears that Ethereum failed at yet another attempt to convincingly overcome $1,700, showing that the buying pressure is slowly fading. The question is if the momentum will pick up or if the bears will take the opportunity to bring the price lower.

Technical Analysis

By Grizzly

The Daily Chart

The daily chart shows that the firm resistance in the $1,700-$1,800 range is far from over. This resistance zone, which includes the 100-day moving average (in white), is considered the main obstacle for bulls on the way to $2000. A break and close above it would signal the start of a new uptrend with a target of $2,200 (in blue), which overlaps with the 200-day moving average (in purple).

Countering this assumption, if the demand in this area dries up and the bears dominate the market again, the possible decline can extend to the support zone in the range of $1,280-1,350 (in green).

Currently, the structure has not changed, and until the lower highs and lower lows are formed, the bullish sentiment prevails.

Key Support Levels: $1500 & $1350
Key Resistance Levels: $1800 & $2200

Daily Moving Averages
MA20: $1589
MA50: $1323
MA100: $1681
MA200: $2294

Source: TradingView

The ETH/BTC Chart

Against Bitcoin, the buyers dominate the market completely. All corrective attempts on the lower time frames are absorbed quickly. The bulls are trying to sustain the price above 0.07 BTC (in red). At this point, it seems more likely that the resistance at 0.75 BTC will be tested. This is where the bears might stage a reappearance. The bullish trend would remain strong as long as ETH is trading above horizontal support at 0.065 BTC (in green).

Key Support Levels: 0.065 & 0.06 BTC
Key Resistance Levels: 0.073 & 0.075 BTC

Source: TradingView

Sentiment Analysis

Taker Buy Sell Ratio
The ratio of buy volume divided by sell volume of takers in perpetual swap trades.

Values over 1 indicate bullish sentiment is dominant.
Values under 1 indicate bearish sentiment is dominant.

Evidently, takers have filled additional buy orders in the last three months. This caused Ethereum to experience a significant price climb. But since July 18, this metric has been moving downwards. Although it is still above the baseline (in green), it suggests that the strength of the takers on the buy side is gradually decreasing. This issue is likely due to profit-taking around the solid resistance by short-term traders.

Source: CryptoQuant

Arthur Hayes Expects $5,000 Ethereum by March 2023

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes says he expects Ethereum to reach $5,000 by the end of Q1 2023.

His estimate is based on a dual expectation that the Federal Reserve will ‘pivot,’ and that the Merge upgrade will be successful – both of which will bolster the price of the second-largest cryptocurrency. 

Inflationary Dollar, Deflationary ETH

As the co-founder explained in his latest blog post, Ethereum will likely yield a greater return than Bitcoin throughout the remainder of 2022. 

Though a Fed pivot would likely have a bullish effect on all asset prices, the Merge represents an Ethereum-specific event that, in his view, “will have an incredibly powerful impact on the price of ETH.”

The Merge is a long-awaited Ethereum upgrade that will transition the network’s consensus mechanism from proof of work to proof of stake. That means Ethereum miners will be rendered obsolete, while holders of the cryptocurrency will be able to earn yield by staking their holdings. 

While the primary goal of the upgrade is to increase Ethereum’s energy efficiency, it is also expected to reduce Ether’s supply issuance rate by 90%. Combined with a growing ecosystem of users constantly burning ETH through transaction fees, Hayes believes the upgrade itself will “drive the price of Ether up exponentially.”

The Merge has suffered delays due to technical complications for years, but developers are now confident that it will occur by September 19th. 

Hayes too believes that this time is for real, as Ethereum miners are actually beginning to grow worried about its reality. In fact, the former CEO claimed to have reached out to multiple members of the Chinese Ethereum mining community who are planning to orchestrate a hard fork that continues using proof of work.   

“Miners would not embark on this journey and spend valuable political capital within the community if they did not believe the merge would happen on schedule(ish),” he argued.

The Fed Will Pivot

The Federal Reserve has pursued a hawkish monetary policy for months in an attempt to reign in record-high CPI inflation. Its action has largely contributed to a selloff across both equity and crypto markets.

Hayes believes the Fed is highly likely to reverse this trend within a few months and return to money printing to protect the economy’s health. 

Despite low unemployment, the economy has already entered a recession due to two quarters in a row of negative GDP growth. Furthermore, Americans have become even more pessimistic about the state of the economy than during the covid pandemic. 

“Fighting inflation requires increasing the PRICE of money (USD) and decreasing the QUANTITY of money,” he explained. “The prescription for a “healthy” American economy requires the exact opposite.”

Hayes argued in a previous blog post that the U.S. would also need to weaken its currency against both the euro and yen to protect the international economy. 


Crypto Price Analysis August-5: Ethereum, Ripple, Cardano, Solana, and Ethereum Classic

This week, we take a closer look at Ethereum, Ripple, Cardano, Solana, and Ethereum Classic.


Ethereum (ETH)

After a significant rally, Ethereum seems to have found a local top above $1700, which has so far acted as strong resistance. The price did not manage to move beyond this level and fell by 3.4% in the past seven days. The key support is found at $1,400.

Despite the ongoing pullback, Ethereum still managed a very strong performance since the bottom in June. Even if the price falls to the key support, the expectation is that buyers will return to the market and attempt a breakout beyond $1,700. The key support at $1,400 can act as a reversal point to trigger the next leg up for the cryptocurrency.

The indicators show some weakness right now on the daily timeframe, but the sellers are not very convincing. This shows that buyers may return in force again to take ETH above the current resistance and even towards $2,000.

Chart by TradingView

Ripple (XRP)

Ripple has not managed to break free from the key resistance at $0.38 despite several attempts. There was a massive wick on July 30th that went above this critical level, but the bears quickly pushed it back down. For this reason, the price action for XRP has remained relatively flat in the past seven days with only a 1.4% increase.

While the indicators remain bullish, the volume does not bring enough confidence that buyers will manage to break free from this range. With the approaching weekend, it is unlikely we will see a breakout unless the market leaders (BTC and ETH) attempt a significant rally.

Looking ahead, XRP fans will likely have to accept more sideways price action until a clean breakout takes place that will turn the key resistance at $0.38 into support. Until then, XRP may continue to move within this large channel between $0.38 and $0.30.

Chart by TradingView

Cardano (ADA)

Cardano continues to struggle below the $0.55 resistance. Multiple attempts failed to produce a successful breakout, and this has kept the price relatively flat below the important level in the past seven days. The support levels remain at $0.50 and $0.45.

Looking at the price action, we can see that ADA did manage to make higher highs and higher lows which places the price in a clear uptrend. Therefore, another battle between bulls and bears in the days ahead at the key resistance seems likely.

While the volume is not great right now, buyers may attempt another breakout next week. The indicators such as the MACD and RSI remain bullish despite the most recent pullback. This could build up into a strong upward momentum if buyers remain interested.

Chart by TradingView

Solana (SOL)

There is finally some good news for Solana. After suffering a market downturn due to the most recent exploit of some Solana-based wallets, the price managed to find support at $40 and avoid a breakdown below the ascending triangle. Nevertheless, in the past seven days, SOL still lost 6% of its valuation.

It is critical for the cryptocurrency to break above this ascending triangle as there are not that many days left for it to do so. Should it manage, then its price will likely enter a much-needed rally to bring back attention and buyers. Any breakdown from the key support of $44 will likely take Solana back to the support at $35.

Looking ahead, expect to see the volatility increase for Solana as it approaches the apex of this formation. By counting the number of days left within the triangle, we can see that SOL has around another week within the triangle before a major break becomes much likely happen.

Chart by TradingView

Ethereum Classic (ETC)

With Ethereum expected to transition to Proof of Stake in September, there is a lot of speculation about what will happen to all those miners currently mining ETH. Vitalik, the founder of Ethereum, recently stated (July 21st) that one option could well be for them to move to Ethereum Classic.

After Vitalik’s statement, ETC’s price shot up from $25 and topped at $45. Soon after that, the cryptocurrency entered a pullback, and in the past seven days, ETC lost 10% of its valuation. Nevertheless, the price found good support at $34, which could act as a pivot towards the key resistance at $48.

Looking ahead, with the merge approaching for Ethereum, proof of work networks such as ETC are expected to perform quite well as attention moves to the alternatives. Moreover, ETC broke its massive downtrend set in May 2021. This is a major change in the price action and gives a strong bullish bias.

Chart by TradingView

Over 44 Million Contracts Deployed to Ethereum Since Genesis: Research

There have been more than 44 million smart contracts deployed on Ethereum since it began, according to Electric Capital engineer ‘Emre.’

He added that remarkably, around 70% of the 15 million or so live contracts are copies of one of 15 templates.

Breaking Down The Contracts

He revealed that more than 50% of all contracts, or 22 million of them, have been destroyed in what he believes is an effort to save gas. Furthermore, 10% of the live ones are gas token contracts.

“To disincentivize state bloat, EVM refunds gas to a user for destroying a contract,” he noted before adding that this resulted in users deploying empty contracts when gas prices were low and destroying them when high for a quick refund.

Half of all live contracts, or around 12 million, are forwarders deployed by exchanges acting like a PO box for users. They give users an address custodied by exchanges permitting them to collect ERC-20 tokens sent to users.

There are around a million smart contracts deployed by OpenSea for selling NFTs, he revealed. About 150,000 contracts are ENS deeds, part of the old Ethereum name service domain registration mechanism that are no longer in use.

With around 400,000 contracts dedicated to ERC-20 tokens, they did not make the template list due to variations in them.

According to Etherscan, Ethereum daily verified contracts hit an all-time high of 602 on August 3. The chart shows how the network is growing in terms of smart contract deployment, which has doubled this year.

Ethereum Daily Verified Contracts
Ethereum Daily Verified Contracts

The number of unique Ethereum addresses also hit an all-time high this week of over 202 million. Daily transactions are around 1.2 million and have been relatively stable this year, aside from the occasional spike.

Additionally, Coinbase launched ETH staking for institutional investors in the United States this week.

ETH Price Update

The token price chart does not resemble this, however, since ETH is still down 66% from its November all-time high.

ETH has made around 2% on the day to trade at $1,650 at the time of writing, according to CoinGecko. The asset is up 43% over the past month, but heavy resistance at higher levels is preventing any further market momentum.

Merge hype appears to have waned as Ethereum has remained in consolidation for the past week.


Bitcoin Already Bottomed in This Cycle, Anthony Scaramucci Says

SkyBridge Capital’s Founder – Anthony Scaramucci – does not expect bitcoin’s valuation to tumble below the $17,500 price tag registered in June. He also maintained that the asset’s “fair value” should be $40,000, or nearly twice the current level.

Still, the executive thinks BTC’s price surge will not happen overnight because of the financial turmoil that dominates the globe. As such, it might take up to five years for the leading cryptocurrency to get back on its feet.

BTC ‘Fair Value’ of $40,000, ETH – $2,800

It is safe to say that bitcoin has been in a state of knockdown during the past several months considering its impressive performance last year. In fact, its current valuation of approximately $23,500 is around 66% less than the all-time high of nearly $70K registered in November 2021. Moreover, at one point in June, its price dropped to $17,500, causing panic and uncertainty among investors.

According to Anthony Scaramucci, though, the worst of the bear market is over. The asset might still plunge in the near future, but it should not drop below the $17.5K level, he claimed:

“We believe that the leverage has been blown out of the system. It’s possible for bitcoin to slide, but I don’t think it’s going below the low that was reached for this cycle, which should be at around $17,500.”

Anthony Scaramucci. Source: CNBC
Anthony Scaramucci. Source: CNBC

Scaramucci further argued that based on “adoption, wallet size, use cases, and growth of wallets,” bitcoin’s “fair market value” at the moment is approximately $40,000. Ether, on the other hand, should be worth about $2,800. However, SkyBridge Capital’s head described the volatility of the crypto market as an obstacle that could hinder the next bull run:

“Again, these are volatile assets. I guess what’s at issue here is people need to take a four to five years view of these assets.”

Crypto Is a Long-Term Investment

Scaramucci has been an outspoken supporter of the digital asset industry for years now. It is worth noting, though, that in many of his appearances, he warned consumers to look at bitcoin and the altcoins as an investment strategy that could grant them profits in the long run.

Last month, he reiterated his position, admitting that betting on BTC in the short term was a mistake. As a result of the massive exposure, his company lost a considerable amount of funds during the crypto winter.

“I don’t regret it… To me, short-term is a mistake but remember; everyone is a long-term investor until they have short-term losses. So, I want to measure the bitcoin investment over a four-year interval. I think if you’ve held bitcoin for a rolling four-year cycle, you’ve made money,” Scaramucci said at the time.

Last year, the executive gave another tip to cryptocurrency investors, advising them to distribute not more than 5% of their total savings in the asset class. Thus, they could still enjoy solid profits in case of a price expansion, while losses will be insignificant if the valuation heads south.