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This is the Level ETH Needs to Reclaim to Turn Back Bullish (Ethereum Price Analysis)

Ethereum is about to close an eighth consecutive red week. High-risk assets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies, are experiencing a devastating year in 2022. But where is the next significant support for ETH?

Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis By Grizzly

The Daily Chart

After Ethereum overcame its key dynamic resistance in March, it raised the possibility of an uptrend. However, things returned bearish in early April, as ETH fell unexpectedly.

Currently, the price is back upon the descending line (marked in blue), which is now acting as support. This structure means that the bulls did not have adequate power to push the price above.

This weakness in the trend is also seen in the daily candlesticks: It was exactly a year ago, on May 19, 2021, when the price reached the green demand zone where the high buying pressure caused the daily candle to close with a long bullish wick (to the downside). As can be seen, this area lies in the range between $1300 – $1500.

On the other hand, and looking at the mid and longer-term, the existing bearish momentum will change if bulls reclaim the resistance level at $2450.

The Directional trend index (in purple) moves below the red line, indicating that the bears are still completely controlling the market. This indicator is an insightful tool to track the bull and bears dominance in the market. For instance, if the index returning above the white horizontal line indicates bulls are back.


Key Support Levels: $1700 & $1500

Key Resistance Levels: $2200 & $2450

Moving Averages:

MA20: $2299

MA50: $2764

MA100: $2812

MA200: $3277

The ETH/BTC Chart

According to the BTC pair chart, the price is approaching a horizontal support level at 0.065, which has successfully supported the price twice in 2022.

This level will likely be tested again soon, and if bulls can defend it another time, there is a possibility of moving upwards towards resistance at 0.07. However, suppose the bears overwhelm the bulls. In that case, there is a possibility of many stop losses being triggered below 0.065, which will probably accelerate the current bearish trend of ETH against BTC.

Key Support Levels: 0.065 BTC & 0.06 BTC

Key Resistance Levels: 0.07 BTC & 0.072 BTC

 

On-chain Analysis

Number of Addresses with Balance Equal to or Greater than 100

Definition: The number of unique addresses holding at least 100 coins. Only Externally Owned Addresses (EOA)  are counted, and contracts are excluded.

In the chart, the number of addresses that hold at least 100 ETH (green circle) has been rising throughout the recent market crash. When this metric started to rise, the price followed shortly after. However, the accumulation by this indicator has not been as significant as in the two previous instances.

If the accumulation increase continues, it may lead to a supply shock and price appreciation, even for a short-term correction.

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ETH Price Analysis: Warning Signs for Ethereum as Bears Push Below $2,000

The cryptocurrency market is still in a state of uncertainty and fear. Ethereum is no exception, and any upward attempt is faced with immediate sell pressure. Will the bulls be able to regain control of the market?

Technical Analysis

By Grizzly

The Daily Chart

On the daily time frame, ETH is moving downward inside a falling wedge (in yellow). It is important to note that this wedge bottom is aligned with the horizontal support level of $1700 (in green), which can be a potential trend reversal point.

As a result, if the bulls can defend the green zone, the price will be more likely to move towards the static resistance at $2450. On the other hand, if the bears continue to suppress the market and break below the green support zone, the price is more likely to enter an extended regression phase.

Key Support Levels: $1700 & $1500

Key Resistance Levels: $2200 & $2450

ethchart_1
Source: TradingView

Moving Averages:

MA20: $2376

MA50: $2818

MA100: $2835

MA200: $3301

The ETH/BTC Chart

Against Bitcoin, ETH is trading on dynamic support (in green) that has prevented further drops in price four times in the past. The main concern is that the bears have managed to make an unconfirmed break and appear to be in control of the situation. On the other hand, horizontal support at 0.065 (in orange) can also be considered a level to withstand the increasing bearish momentum.

If the BTC price breaks below a major static level, the entire altcoin market is historically proven to follow with an amplified correction.

Key Support Levels: 0.065 BTC & 0.06 BTC

Key Resistance Levels: 0.07 BTC & 0.072 BTC

ethbtcchart_1
Source: TradingView

On-chain Analysis

Estimated Leverage Ratio

Definition: The exchange’s open interest is divided by their coins reserve, which shows how much leverage traders use on average. Increasing values indicate more investors are taking high leverage risk in the derivatives trade.

chart1
Source: CryptoQuant

On the chart, one can see that this metric has started moving upwards again, indicating that investors are taking more risks. The consequent outcome is probably significant volatility and then a cascade of liquidations. After all, throughout a bearish phase, a de-leveraging phase has frequently led to a bullish trend in the market.

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ETH Managed to Reclaim $2000, But Is the Storm Over? (Ethereum Price Analysis)

Since the sharp drop in the crypto markets three days ago, Ethereum was able to recover about 14% from its lowest level at $1,800. However, the daily candlesticks structure remains weak.

Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis By Grizzly

The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, $1700 is considered a long-term support level for ETH, which has prevented further price drops in May, June, and July 2021.

Although this level has not been broken down yet, the ETH price did not repeat the immediate bounce back, like the last three occasions in 2021. To understand the reason behind this weak reaction to this multi-year static support, it should be reminded that the macro-economic conditions are different from last year, which is affecting risk assets – both global and crypto markets.

As it seems now and given the current price action, there are two possible scenarios:

Scenario A: Bulls push the price above the horizontal resistance at $2450, and ETH forms a local bottom in the range of $2500 – $3000. Then, most technical analysts are confident that the downtrend is over.

Scenario B: Price can retest the horizontal support at $1700. In that case, there is a high probability of this critical support level breaking down, because the more attempts a support or resistance level gets, the weaker it becomes.

Key Support Levels: $1700 & $1500

Key Resistance Levels: $2200 & $2450

Moving Averages:

MA20: $2545

MA50: $2925

MA100: $2878

MA200: $3347

The 4-Hour Chart

ETH is forming a bullish structure on the 4-hour time frame, including higher highs and higher lows. At present, the main barrier is the static resistance at $2145.

ETH must break above this level and form a higher high in order to maintain the bullish structure. The intersection of this level with the thick Ichimoku can also create a serious challenge for bulls.

On-chain Analysis: Exchange Netflow (Total)

Definition: The difference between coins flowing in and out of exchanges (Inflow – Outflow = Netflow). A positive value indicates reserves are increasing.

Due to the sharp drop, many investors have transferred their coins into exchanges. Typically, this behavior is accompanied by substantial selling pressure in the market.

As long as the histogram bars do not turn red, speculators tend to be more cautious. For the market to start moving up, we should see market players withdraw their coins from the exchange, something that will cause a ‘supply shock.’

 

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Crypto Price Analysis May-13: Ethereum, Ripple, Cardano, Solana, and Shiba Inu

This week, we take a closer look at Ethereum, Ripple, Cardano, Solana, and Shiba Inu.

img1_cryptopostcharts

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum had crashed this past week, with the largest selling volume taking place on Thursday when the price reached its lowest level in 2022 at $1,700 (on Bitstamp). Since then, the price has recovered above $2,000 and has found good support at $1,900. Overall, it was a very difficult week for ETH, which lost 22% in the past seven days.

Nevertheless, there are signs of optimism that the spike in volume yesterday may indicate a possible reversal in the downtrend, at least in the near term, because such high volume has not been seen since 2021. At the time of this writing, ETH is on the move up.

The next key resistance levels are found at $2,200, $2,350 and $2,500. The indicators also favor bulls now, with the MACD and RSI indicators both signaling that a potential reversal might be in play. Should this materialize in the next few days, then the cryptocurrency may see a good performance in the coming week, recovering some of the most recent losses.

ETHUSD_2022-05-13_16-30-21
Chart by TradingView

Ripple (XRP)

XRP took a nosedive yesterday to a level not seen since February 2021 at $0.336 (Binance). The selloff was sharp, and since then, XRP’s price has recovered to some extent, turning the $0.37 level into support. Overall, it lost 25% in the past seven days.

Any recovery will face resistance at $0.56, which used to act as a support in the past. Considering that the market may have bottomed yesterday during the selloff, XRP has a good chance to recover and attempt a relief rally in the next few days.

However, it is important to note that on most charts, the price has made a lower low which makes the overall macro trend bearish, despite any relief rally. For this reason, it is best to watch the key resistance level carefully as sellers may return.

XRPUSDT_2022-05-13_16-43-43
Chart by TradingView

Cardano (ADA)

Despite a significant crash, ADA has made a sustained recovery in the past 24h. Yesterday, its price fell to $0.40 (Binance), where it found support, and now it sits just under the key resistance at $0.59. Compared to the previous two cryptocurrencies, ADA performed the worst in the past seven days, losing 28% of its valuation.

The volatility in the past three days saw the price of ADA fall by 39% and recover by 51%. This goes to show that the market can be very unpredictable, and price swings are out of the ordinary at this time. The volume spiked yesterday but now seems to decrease, which should lower volatility as well.

The biggest challenge for ADA is to move above the resistance at $0.59. If successful, then its price can attempt to rally to the next key level found at $0.75.

ADAUSDT_2022-05-13_16-51-23
Chart by TradingView

Solana (SOL)

Since early April, Solana has crashed over 70%, with the most recent price action seeing it reach a potential local bottom at $37 (Binance). The last time Solana’s price was this low was in August 2021. With a price loss of 26% in the past seven days, Solana is the worst performer on our list.

The key support level is found at $44 and the resistance – at $57. While Solana is attempting to recover some of its most recent losses at the time of this post, buyers need to build up more momentum to break the aforementioned level. Should they be successful, the next target is $78.

SOLUSDT_2022-05-13_16-58-37
Chart by TradingView

Shiba Inu (SHIB)

Shiba Inu used to be one of the most popular cryptocurrencies during the bull market. Now, the price has fallen to levels not seen since October 2021. It found good support during this most recent crash at $0.000010, and SHIB is currently in a relief rally. Despite its ongoing recovery, SHIB still lost 30% of its valuation in the past seven days.

The most important resistance levels are at $0.000017 and $0.000020. To reach them, SHIB buyers have to reverse the momentum in their favor and sustain it in the coming week. Historically, SHIB has been a poor performer beyond a few days in a bear market, but so long the market remains in recovery, SHIB could perform well.

SHIBUSDT_2022-05-13_17-07-30
Chart by TradingView
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Ethereum Taps Highest Levels Against Bitcoin Since January Amid Market Downturn (ETH Price Analysis)

The crypto market is heavily influenced by events attributed to the Luna ecosystem. Investors are depositing their assets into exchanges with fear caused by the possible sell-off continuation.

Technical Analysis

By Grizzly

The Daily Chart

ETH stands on horizontal support (in green) on the daily timeframe last touched in January. This level intersects with the descending line (in orange), which may have persuaded some participants to buy at this point.

This technical structure has caused a price increase. ETH has recently lost significant levels, the first of which is $2,500 (in red). Until the price reclaims this level, the current upward movement can be technically considered a bounce.

On the other hand, the last price high on the daily timeframe is relatively far from the current price. ETH needs to confirm a possible uptrend through a closing above $3,000 – only then can the trend be considered reversed.

123
Source: TradingView

Key Support Levels: $2200 & $1700

Key Resistance Levels: $2500 & $3000

Moving Averages:

MA20: $2748

MA50: $3018

MA100: $2912

MA200: $3390

The 4-Hour Chart

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Source: TradingView

On the 4-hour timeframe, the RSI indicator has entered the oversold zone – unprecedented since January. ETH can be expected to recover slightly in this area. But whether the price can move as strongly as in January is unclear because the macroeconomic conditions are very different from then.

The ETH/BTC Chart

Unlike most BTC pair charts, ETH/BTC chart is technically bullish and moves upward within an ascending channel. But the recent ascending leg that starts from the bottom of the channel is not as strong as the previous ones.

Weakness is observed in the upward movement, and the horizontal support at 0.07 BTC is likely to be retested. Therefore, as long as the price moves inside this channel and above the horizontal support at 0.064, one can have bullish insight.

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Source: TradingView

On-chain Analysis

Supply On Exchange vs Supply Held By Non-Exchange Addresses

As mentioned in the technical analysis, the selling pressure in the market is high, and the participants have deposited their assets aggressively into the exchanges over the last 72 hours.

This behaviour is specified in the Supply On Exchange metric. This metric has recently spiked sharply, which usually indicates an increase in the selling pressure. On the other hand, the supply held by non-exchange addresses has decreased slightly. It remains to be seen whether this increase in supply on exchanges will cause the price to drop further.

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Source: CryptoQuant
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ETH Price Analysis: Ethereum is Facing Critical Support, Is Relief Correction Incoming?

Fear dominates the crypto market, following six weeks in the red. Many large caps have lost their long-term support, and ETH is one of them after reaching its lowest level since February 24, the day of the invasion.

Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis By Grizzly

The Daily Chart

The Delta Volume of both Binance futures and FTX perpertuals evaluates the behavior of buyers and seller takers in the market.

When green histograms are witnessed, it is interpreted that buyer takers are in control and buy aggressively, and we can expect the price to increase. Of course, histograms’ length and sequence must also be taken into account.

In the previous two bullish uptrends, it can be seen that the buyer takers had a higher hand on the support levels and pushed the price up. Over the last month, the buyer takers did not have much power, however, we have to wait and see whether they will take control of the market in the coming days or whether the sellers will continue to dominate it.

Key Support Levels: $2300 & $2150

Key Resistance Levels: $2500 & $2700

Moving Averages:

MA20: $2822

MA50: $3043

MA100: $2919

MA200: $3408

The 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour timeframe, ETH is close to support amid the marked-green descending line. The price may face another leg down towards the $2300 level in the short term, entering the oversold zone. However, you should keep in mind that the reversal of the trend will be confirmed if the price can form at least a higher high and low.

On-chain Analysis

Daily on-chain transaction volume in loss: This metric indicates the aggregate amount of coins across all transactions on the network that moved in the loss.

When this metric moves up, it indicates that investors are capitulating. This is usually considered an opportunity to buy-in.

However, the capitulation phase has not yet happened as it did in the past bear markets. Also, liquidated long positions volume has not yet reached levels as before, so there is no certainty that the necessary liquidity has been absorbed to initiate a possible uptrend.

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ETH is Fighting at Key Support Before Possible Further Drop: Ethereum Price Analysis

The cryptocurrency market has calmed down after the massive drop over the last two days. Currently, ETH lies on top of a critical support level, which most analysts refer to as a key level developed over the previous 12 months.

Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis By Grizzly

The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, after the bears pushed the price down more than 10% over the past two days, the weekend has been relatively stable.

However, is this calm before a giant storm?

ETH moves upward inside an ascending channel (yellow), confirming the upward trend – forming higher highs and higher lows. Suppose the bulls can maintain the price in this trajectory, we can expect the horizontal resistance at $3000 to be tested again.

On the other hand, if the price continues down, the long-term dynamic support (in green) at $2,500 could be a possible area of support. At the moment, The selling pressure has decreased a little. However, the buyers have not yet dominated the market.

Key Support Levels: $2500 & $2300

Key  Resistance Levels: $3000 & $3300

Moving Averages:

MA20: $2887

MA50: $3062

MA100: $2922

MA200: $3425

The 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour timeframe, ETH is trading inside a falling wedge (in yellow). The price experienced a fake breakout before returning inside the wedge.

So far, the wedge’s bottom has acted as solid support and is likely to see another consolidation in the range of $2700-2800 (in red), which is a major confluence zone in this timeframe. At present, weak candles are formed, which indicates a not-so-significant buying pressure.

On-chain- analysis

Total Value Locked in DeFi (TVL) – USD – (30D MA)

When the market is bullish, investors have an intense desire to lock their crypto assets in DeFi platforms, which increases the TVL. But at the moment, there is some skepticism among investors, and they probably prefer to have some of their assets in cash.

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Crypto Price Analysis May-6: Ethereum, Ripple, Cardano, Tron, and Shiba Inu

This week, we take a closer look at Ethereum, Ripple, Cardano, Tron, and Shiba Inu.

img1_crypto

Ethereum (ETH)

This past week, ETH experienced high volatility with price rallying towards the $3,000 resistance only to be sharply rejected back on the critical support at $2,720 on Thursday. Overall, ETH lost 7.3% of its valuation in the last seven days.

The market sentiment remains bearish, and ETH has a difficult week ahead, particularly as the price is now found on the key support that will soon be put under tremendous pressure from sellers. Should it fail, ETH’s price may fall towards $2,500.

The outlook is pessimistic, and the indicators on the daily timeframe and above are bearish. For example, the MACD moving averages are expanding as they fall, which is a sign of increased selling momentum. On the other hand, the RSI has plenty of room until it hits the oversold area at under 30 points (currently at 42). In this context, it is hard to be bullish.

ETHUSD_2022-05-06_08-57-09
Chart by TradingView

Ripple (XRP)

Despite a worthy attempt from XRP to break away from the key resistance at $0.65, the market turned around and pushed it back within the current range that has support at $0.58. This latest rejection took XRP’s price down, closing the past seven days with a 7% loss.

The indicators are looking more promising compared to ETH since XRP’s price appears to have bottomed when the key support was first tested on April 30th, at least in the near term. Since then, the momentum shifted, and XRP could consolidate within its current range.

Looking ahead, the cryptocurrency has a good chance to finally break away from its range if market sentiment improves, as the selling pressure seems to have subsided at the start of May after a very difficult month in April when XRP’s price crashed almost 40%.

XRPUSDT_2022-05-06_09-07-24
Chart by TradingView

Cardano (ADA)

If ETH was volatile, Cardano took this to the next level this past week. Price went up and down almost 20% between last Wednesday and Thursday. Despite this volatility, the cryptocurrency only lost around 5% of its valuation compared to seven days ago after being rejected by the resistance at $0.85.

Even if ADA’s price lost most of its gains, the indicators are giving some bullish signals. The daily MACD did a bullish crossover last Wednesday, and this has been maintained to date, even if the price returned to the key support found at $0.75.

Looking ahead, as long as ADA can stay above the key support, then the outlook is somewhat positive based on the price action and indicators. It is best to be cautious in the coming week as the market momentum can shift from one day to another.

ADAUSDT_2022-05-06_09-18-27
Chart by TradingView

Tron (TRX)

Tron took a center stage these past few weeks with the announcement of its new stablecoin called USDD, which is based on Terra’s UST & Luna model. This has led to a 22.2% price increase in the past seven days after TRX broke the key resistance at $0.073 (now acting as support).

Tron’s new resistance is found at $0.093, and the indicators have turned bullish this past week. MACD has crossed to the positive side, and buy pressure is building up with high volume.

This bullish momentum is likely to continue, particularly as demand for stablecoins with good passive returns is high during a bear market. USDD is promising 30% APR which would make it one of the best in the market if it can be sustained.

TRXUSDT_2022-05-06_09-29-36
Chart by TradingView

Shiba Inu (SHIB)

SHIB had another difficult week, with the price unable to move far from the key support at $0.000020. The longer it tests the key support level, the higher the chance of a breakdown. Overall, the cryptocurrency has lost almost 14% of it valuation in the past seven days.

The outlook for SHIB is bearish, and buyers have to do their best to defend the key support, otherwise, the next support for SHIB will be found at $0.000017. The key resistance at $0.000028 is far away, and the price will likely not revisit such levels any time soon.

Looking ahead, SHIB holders need to prepare for the worst while hoping for the best. If market sentiment does not change to turn bullish again, it is very hard to see how SHIB can hold above its current support.

SHIBUSDT_2022-05-06_09-30-21
Chart by TradingView
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ETH Price Analysis: Ethereum Fights at $2.8K but Are Bears Preparing Another Assault?

Ethereum bulls are trying to keep the uptrend at a critical stage. For a solid reversal, they must try to hold the dynamic support and break above the descending resistance line.

Technical Analysis

By Grizzly

The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, the bears have been unable to push the price below the dynamic support (in green). This trend line is currently playing an essential role in continuing the uptrend. On the other hand, losing it can psychologically cause panic in the market.

Continuing the upward trend is associated with many challenges. The thick Ichimoku cloud is ahead of the price, accompanied by dynamic resistance and the daily MA200. The first scenario is for the bulls to return above the $3300 level. This can become a confirmation of a trend reversal.

On the other hand, if the bears continue to control the market, breaking below $2600 can damage hopes of continuing the bull market. At the time, it appears that bears have the upper hand.

1
Source: TradingView

Support Key Levels: $2800 & $2600 & $2300

Resistance Key Levels: $3000 & $3300

Moving Averages:

MA20: $2942

MA50: $3065

MA100: $2909

MA200: $3446

The 4-Hour Chart

ETH is descending into a falling wedge (in yellow). This pattern is classically considered bullish. Horizontal resistance at $2,900 is regarded as the key level in this timeframe. If the price fails to break this resistance, the falling wedge bottom is expected to act as a support at $2680. The RSI is also struggling with the descending line and fluctuating on the bearish and bullish zone border.

2
Source: TradingView

On-chain- analysis

 Mean Transfer Volume to/from Exchanges

Definition: The mean size of a transaction to/from exchange addresses. Only successful transfers are counted.

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Source: Glassnode
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Source: Glassnode

The high values ​​in the inflow metric often present a bearish signal and indicate that, at present, investors prefer to send their coins to the exchange (specifically the larger entities). In contrast, the outflow from the exchange sends a positive signal. Currently, the mean value of transactions to exchanges is rising while the mean value of the transaction withdrawing from exchanges is staying flat. This divergence is a bearish signal from the supply/demand perspective in the market. Therefore, the probability of downward price action in short term is higher than usual.

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Ethereum Price Analysis: This is ETH’s Most Important Level to Watch This Week

April was a bloody month for crypto, and especially for Ethereum. The ETH price fell from its month’s highest level at $3580 to $2700 last night. Can we expect May to perform better?

Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis By Grizzly

The Daily Chart

The following chart shows perpetuals’ exchange data from FTX. ETH is trading on top of the marked long-term ascending line (in green).

This trend line has provided support to the price since January 2021, based on the previous five attempts. ETH saw a bullish leg following each of these attempts.

Currently, ETH is heading towards the sixth attempt on top of the line, along with the blue horizontal level, which intersects with the dynamic trend line at $2,500. A breakdown could be catastrophic for ETH.

One thing to note is that buyer takers are less dominant, as evident by looking at data from Binance. Past uptrends have been accompanied by increased buyer dominance, which is marked on the chart below in yellow. Unfortunately, there is no positive signal now.

Key Support Levels: $2800 , $2500 , $2300

Key Resistance Levels: $3000 , $3300

Moving Averages:

MA20: $2961

MA50: $3052

MA100: $2901

MA200: $3456

The 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour timeframe, the Fibonacci Retracement level at 0.786 provided support and has so far prevented ETH from breaking down.

On the other hand, the Fibonacci level at 0.618 also acts as a solid resistance level, currently around $2900. Suppose ETH can break out above the marked falling wedge (in blue), it can signal a reversal in the short term. If a higher high at $3,000 is formed, this can enhance the bullish sentiment.

On-chain Analysis

Number of Active Addresses (14d Moving Average)

Definition: The number of unique addresses active in the network, either sender address or receiver. Only addresses that were active in confirmed transactions are counted.

This metric usually accompanies price trends and can be considered an index of the network’s health. When the price moves upwards, we can expect an increase in the number of transactions on the network, which increases the number of active addresses. This metric has been under a downward trend and has reached the lowest level after recording its all-time high in November.